While the World Gluts, Ghana Holds Steady
The week closed with markets taut and watchful. Brent traded at $71.09 (up $0.32, +0.45% on the day, but down roughly $0.70 week-over-week) on February 25, 2026, while WTI hovered around $65.84 (up $0.21, +0.32% in morning trade). U.S. crude inventories rose by 16 million barrels for the week ending February 20, reinforcing the market’s supply dominance. The third round of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks concluded in Geneva on February 26–27 with significant progress, giving measured optimism. Traders balanced these developments with seasonal refinery cycles and global crude flows.
Global balances leaned further toward surplus. The International Energy Agency projects 2026 supply growth of 2.4 million barrels per day against demand growth of 850,000 barrels per day, implying a 3.7 million-barrel daily surplus. OPEC reported January output at 29.28 million barrels per day, confirming the imbalance. Goldman Sachs raised Q4 2026 price forecasts to $60 Brent and $56 WTI, reflecting cautious optimism in the context of persistent excess. The surplus narrative remains central to strategic planning for oil-exporting nations.
African production continued to expand. Nigeria lifted January output to 1.459 million barrels per day, up 37,000 barrels month-on-month. Angola projects rise in barrels per day. These gains intensify competition for rigs, skilled labor, and capital, highlighting the strategic importance of efficiency and partnerships across the continent.
Morocco charts a dual energy horizon. Its $35 billion green hydrogen initiative and a third 700 MW interconnector to Spain illustrate Africa’s dual strategy: monetizing existing oil and gas while building renewable infrastructure for the future. These projects aim to supply Europe with clean energy, offering fiscal buffers and hedges against oil market volatility.
Ghana maintained market stability. Fuel prices held steady between February 21–27, anchored by NPA price floors set February 16. Petrol ranged from GH¢10.24 to GH¢10.98 per litre, diesel from GH¢11.34 to GH¢12.83, and LPG from GH¢9.43 to GH¢13.93 per kilogram. GOIL sold petrol at GH¢10.24 and diesel at GH¢12.53, Stability persisted despite a 4–5% depreciation of the cedi and international crude above $70 per barrel.
Cedi movements remained critical. The currency traded between 10.65 and 10.67 per dollar on February 26–27, with each shift impacting pump prices, debt service, and fiscal planning. Brent near 71 supports Ghana’s budget assumptions, though upside remains constrained by global surplus conditions.
Africa’s production scale-up, Morocco’s transition investments, and persistent global inventories converge in Ghana. The country sits at a strategic intersection, balancing domestic stability with external pressures, testing fiscal resilience, and navigating an energy market where disciplined execution and forward-looking policy decisions will determine long-term outcomes.
