The Converging Squeeze. How Global Surplus Meets Local Strain
The week of 20th February 2026 exposed the tension between global oversupply and local market pressure. Global data signals a looming surplus of 3.7 million barrels per day for 2026, yet Ghanaian consumers face rising pump prices. The chain runs from production tables in Vienna and forecasts in Paris to the exchange rate board in Accra, linking macro forces, regional dynamics, and domestic realities.
OPEC+ January output stood at 42.45 million barrels per day, down 439,000 barrels per day from December due to outages in Kazakhstan, Iran, and Venezuela. Quotas remain unchanged through March. The International Energy Agency projects 2026 supply growth of 2.4 million barrels per day against demand growth of 850,000 barrels per day, implying a significant surplus. Brent trades near 70 dollars per barrel, with year-to-date performance around negative 17.8 percent
West Africa’s energy landscape remains uneven. Nigeria produced 1.459 million barrels per day of crude in January, below its OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day for a sixth consecutive month. Total liquids reached 1.627 million barrels per day. Revenue losses from output gaps over the past year reached N1.76 trillion, approximately 1.31 billion USD, underscoring the cost of infrastructure insecurity. Angola added 60,000 barrels per day via the Ndungu field, which came online between 18 and 20 February through a subsea tie-back to the Ngoma FPSO. These moves demonstrate how fast-field execution can relieve budget pressures.
Ghana’s domestic upstream sector is actively mitigating global volatility. At the Jubilee Field, operated by Tullow Oil, the J74 well ramped to 13,000 barrels per day, pushing gross February output above 70,000 barrels per day. The J75 well encountered approximately 40-50 metres of net pay, the vertical thickness of reservoir rock capable of producing commercial volumes. This range reconciles differences between partner and operator reporting and reduces geological risk while strengthening long-term revenue visibility. Partners signed a 205 million dollar sale and purchase agreement for the TEN FPSO, expected to lower unit costs and tighten asset control. Parliament ratified extensions for West Cape Three Points and Deepwater Tano licenses to 2040, unlocking up to 2 billion dollars in incremental investment and a potential additional 10 percent interest for GNPC from 2036.
The revised domestic gas agreement cuts prices by 18 percent and lifts supply from 100 to 130 million standard cubic feet per day, equivalent to roughly 22,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Stable gas production reduces reliance on imported liquid fuels for power generation and limits exposure to global price spikes.
Retail realities highlight the cedi’s influence more than Brent. During the 16-28 February petroleum pricing window, rates used for price adjustments appear to reflect weighted petroleum pricing window rates rather than pure interbank spot. These ranged approximately 11.10-11.30, whereas the interbank spot traded 10.99-11.01 and forex bureaus quoted 11.50-11.80 for USDGHS. NPA floor prices effective 16 February 2026 were 10.24 cedis per litre for petrol, 11.34 cedis per litre for diesel, and 8.48 cedis per kilogram for LPG. Retail prices at specific stations were above these floors, but the NPA baseline defines regulated minimums.
Looking ahead, the 11.5 cedis-to-dollar threshold is critical. Crossing it would likely trigger another upward adjustment at the pump regardless of Brent’s stability. Consistency in domestic gas flows at or above 130 mmscf per day remains central to controlling thermal power costs. Global LNG prices, influenced by Henry Hub spikes, will continue to shape Ghana’s energy cost structure. OPEC compliance and unplanned outages will further test the resilience of supply chains.
This week confirmed the chain of transmission. A surplus forecast in Paris, a quota gap in Nigeria, a new field in Angola, a 40-50 metre reservoir offshore Ghana, and fractional movements in the cedi converge at the Ghanaian forecourt. Macro forces and local market dynamics are inseparable. Ghana’s strategic upstream moves, gas agreements, and currency monitoring create the buffer that transforms potential shocks into manageable risk.
