Oil is falling. Ghana is not feeling it.
Brent crude trades near 67.66 dollars per barrel. WTI hovers around 62.96 dollars. The International Energy Agency forecasts a 3.7 million barrels per day supply surplus in 2026 and has cut global demand growth to 850,000 barrels per day, signaling ample availability. Markets in London and Houston are whispering of cheaper fuel. In Accra, the cedi is showing a shortage. One market offers a hand up; the other demands a payout.
The foreign exchange market has rewritten the energy script. The cedi weakened by about 0.77% during the February pricing window, with the parallel market trading near GHS 11.80 per dollar. Every depreciation directly inflates the ex-refinery price and, by extension, the pump. Ghana’s bucket is riddled with holes: the global price drop is draining away as it moves from the Gulf of Guinea to the local forecourt. This is the cedi tax.
COPEC projects a 1.5% to 3% increase in petrol and diesel prices for the next window, despite softer crude benchmarks. The projected adjustment reflects exchange rate pressure and prior product cost movements. Effective prices during the second week in February were GH¢9.99 per litre for petrol and GH¢11.90 per litre for diesel. The Energy Commission’s framework shows that exchange rate movements are embedded in the pricing formula. This is more than accounting: it is economic gravity. Imported fuels priced in dollars magnify every local currency fluctuation, and marginal depreciation turns global relief into domestic pain.
Global markets remain structurally abundant. The IEA points to strong non-OPEC production and moderate demand expansion. Speculators have reduced bullish positions. Volatility has eased compared to previous geopolitical spikes. Yet for Ghana, the decisive variable is not the number of barrels supplied but the rate at which the cedi trades.
OPEC’s next production signals will matter. If output rises in April, Brent could slip toward the 60–65 dollar range, deepening global relief. Whether that relief reaches Ghanaian pumps depends entirely on currency stability.
The ripple effects extend beyond fuel. Higher petrol and diesel prices translate into increased transport fares, higher food distribution costs, and more expensive power generation. Ghana’s thermal plants rely heavily on imported fuels; a weaker cedi raises generation costs and strains utility finances, feeding broader inflation expectations and fiscal pressure.
Think of the global oil price as a filling station. While pumps in London and Houston are lowering their prices, Ghana’s bucket is riddled with holes. By the time the relief travels from the Gulf of Guinea to the forecourts in Accra, the cedi’s weakness has drained every drop of the discount. The global oil surplus is visible in headlines but absent at the pump.
We cannot pray for lower Brent prices to save us from a domestic currency crisis. Until we plug the leak in the cedi, the global oil surplus is merely a ghost haunting the headlines, invisible to consumers, and punitive to the economy.
