The Scissors Crisis. Ghana’s Race Between Falling Barrels and Rising Costs

The first week in February highlighted a clear tension in Ghana’s energy landscape. Fuel prices rose due to currency weakness and higher crude prices. At the same time, we’re seeing a real shift in regional energy infrastructure that directly hits Ghana’s bottom line. The drivers are clear; local pricing, regional grid shifts, and global oil trends are converging to dictate the market's next move.

On 1 February 2026, petrol prices increased by 2.10 % to GH¢11.48 per litre, diesel rose 4.00–5.10 % to GH¢12.77 per litre, and LPG moved to GH¢13.50 per kilogram. These adjustments were driven by a weakened cedi, which moved from GH¢10.90 to GH¢10.98, feeding directly into pump price adjustments.

In Kumasi, the AKSA Anwomaso plant is currently delivering 123 MW to the grid, roughly 60% of its 205 MW capacity. This output marks a steady phase-in of new power for the region, with the remaining capacity expected to come online by April 2026

West African supply dynamics are shifting. The Dangote refinery is scaling toward its 650,000 bpd capacity as part of a broader effort to rebalance the regional product market. However, upstream exports have dipped because the Bonga offshore field commenced turnaround maintenance on February 1. This maintenance has temporarily reduced Nigeria’s exports by 225,000 bpd. The tension between refinery growth and extraction pauses represents the central theme for the region’s energy security this month.

Angola’s production outlook for 2026 has brightened to 1.14 million bpd, representing a 6.5% year-on-year increase. A major driver is the recently commissioned South N’dola platform. It is already doing the heavy lifting, providing the necessary volume to keep regional crude flows competitive in the global market.

Mozambique’s LNG development has successfully transitioned back into full execution mode as of early 2026. Following the formal lifting of force majeure, the project has mobilized offshore vessels to begin infrastructure installation. Currently sitting at 40% completion, the consortium remains committed to a 2029 first-gas deadline, positioning Mozambique to become a top-tier global energy exporter by the end of the decade.

Global crude markets saw a cooling trend this week Brent crude opened the week at $68.72 but gradually softened, closing at $67.55 on February 5. Meanwhile, WTI followed a similar downward path, starting Monday at $64.72 and sliding to $63.19 by Thursday’s close. This retreat suggests that while regional disruptions persist, the broader market is currently pricing in a more balanced outlook for the second half of 2026."

Ghana has solved the cost problem in power, but it has yet to solve the revenue problem in oil. The next 24 months will determine if the "Great Rebalancing" results in a leaner, more resilient economy or a fiscal trap. Execution speed is no longer a luxury; it is the only remaining hedge against regional irrelevance.