Gas Pivot: Policy and Prices Redefine Energy Security
Ghana closed the final week of January with a decisive gas price reset. Policy, not markets, set the pace. The state traded margin and sovereignty for reliability, a high-stakes bet that, for now, is paying off.
The defining move came January 28. Cabinet approved the $2 billion Jubilee Partners gas deal and the Sankofa Partners agreement. Dropping gas prices from $3.1 to $2.5 per mmBtu lowers the levelized cost of energy, narrows the gap to regulated tariffs, and eases short-term pressures on arrears. It does not erase debt but steadies the system and buys time for broader reforms.
Ghana advanced key initiatives supporting sustainable transition and industrial revitalization. On January 26, Tetracore Energy Group commissioned the country’s first Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) facility in Tema. Addressing Vice President Prof. Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang, the Minister of Energy and Green Transition announced the revival of the Tema Oil Refinery and the rollout of solar-powered irrigation pumps and EV charging stations supporting Ghana’s electric vehicle fleet.
The Energy Minister confirmed ten months without load shedding. The grid holds but requires continuous oversight. The CNG facility adds long-term transport diversification, though immediate system impact is modest.
Ghana aims to add 10,000 barrels of crude oil per day in 2026 as part of wider reforms to revitalize its petroleum and energy sectors.
Market forces reinforced the narrative. Fuel prices remained unchanged for the last week of January, while the cedi depreciated 4% against the dollar. Consumers saw limited relief, but currency pressures remain a latent risk.
Beyond Ghana, Africa offered a key signal. TotalEnergies restarted construction of the Mozambique LNG project, lifting a four-year force majeure and projecting first LNG in 2029. Gas remains the continent’s transition fuel, and long-term patience and scale are essential. Ghana must shield its strategy from short-term political pressures to secure local gains.
Global oil added risk. Brent flirted with $70 per barrel on Iran-related tension, though the forward curve near $65 signaled contained long-term concern. Upside is capped, but so is volatility.
Focus now turns to execution. Parliamentary approval of the Jubilee deal will determine whether the gas reset moves from intent to impact. The week bought calm; the months ahead will show if it endures.
