OPEC Output Rises as Non-OECD Demand Anchors 2025 Growth Forecast

Photo Credit: OPEC

Vienna, Austria | 12 August 2025 -  OPEC crude oil production rose by 263,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July to reach 27.54 million bpd, according to the group’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report. The increase was led by Saudi Arabia, which boosted output by 170,000 bpd to 9.53 million bpd, offsetting declines elsewhere in the group. Iraq registered the largest drop, down 51,000 bpd to 3.90 million bpd.

Combined crude production from the broader OPEC+ alliance, which includes non-OPEC producers such as Russia and Kazakhstan, rose by 335,000 bpd in July, bringing total output to 41.94 million bpd. The gains point to a continued balancing act between supply management and market share preservation amid evolving global demand dynamics.

OPEC left its forecast for 2025 global oil demand growth unchanged, projecting an increase of 1.3 million bpd year-on-year, bringing total demand to 105.14 million bpd. The report underlines that the bulk of this growth—about 1.15 million bpd—is expected to come from non-OECD economies, driven by expanding industrial activity, rising transport fuel demand, and emerging market urbanisation. By contrast, OECD demand is forecast to grow by a modest 140,000 bpd, reflecting efficiency gains and ongoing transitions in energy consumption patterns.

In refining, the group noted seasonal adjustments ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter, with capacity utilisation expected to trend higher in Asia and the Middle East to meet both domestic needs and export opportunities.

The stability of OPEC’s demand outlook, coupled with modest production increases, signals the group’s cautious confidence in oil market fundamentals, even as global economic and geopolitical uncertainties persist.