Ghana’s Downstream Energy Landscape: A Northern Shift and Systemic Realignment

Decoding COMAC’s Half-Year 2025 Report on Supply, Demand, and Market Dynamics

Explosive National Growth and Emerging Drivers

Ghana’s downstream petroleum sector has witnessed a remarkable surge in the first half of 2025, with total consumption leaping by 17.65% year-on-year—from 3.07 billion litres to 3.62 billion litres. This scale of expansion ranks among the most significant in recent history, signaling a dynamic energy transition playing out beneath Ghana’s surface economy.

The drivers of this growth are as revealing as the numbers themselves. Most striking is the staggering 4,572.7% increase in Fuel Oil consumption by power plants—a vivid marker of thermal generation demand amid persistent hydroelectric deficits and volatile gas supplies. Concurrently, a 420% surge in foreign marine gasoil volumes cements Ghana’s rising stature as a marine refuelling and logistics hub on the West African coast. Traditional fuels such as petrol and diesel also climbed robustly—21.66% and 20.69% respectively—adding nearly half a billion litres combined.

Conversely, certain products tell a story of structural shifts and market realities: local marine gasoil plummeted 56.84%, kerosene declined 45.16% as households pivot to LPG and electricity, and premix fuel dropped 23.47%, underscoring weakened fishing activity and supply inefficiencies. Industrial fuel oil and gasoil for power plants also showed steep declines, reflecting a broader energy mix evolution towards cleaner or more cost-effective alternatives.

The Northern-Middle Belt: Ghana’s New Demand Engines

Perhaps the most profound narrative in the report is the geographic rebalancing of Ghana’s energy demand. The traditional dominance of Greater Accra, which still consumes a commanding 1 billion litres, is increasingly being eclipsed by rapid growth in northern and middle-belt regions.

Upper East region tops this chart with an eye-popping 80.23% consumption increase, fueled by expanding mobility, industrial activity, and market penetration. Close behind, Ashanti (+22.2%), Upper West (+21.7%), Eastern (+21.2%), and Brong Ahafo (+19.2%) emerge as dynamic growth corridors, collectively establishing themselves as the new powerhouses of petroleum demand.

This northern tilt is further underscored by market saturation signals in Accra, where growth plateaued at just 6.94%, confirming the capital’s mature energy market. Meanwhile, regions like Volta lag with a modest 3.37% uptick, while the Northern region’s moderate 9.37% growth masks an alarming 49.53% collapse in LPG consumption—a critical setback for national clean energy ambitions.

Product-Specific Insights: Winners, Losers, and Policy Signals

A granular look at product-level data illuminates sectoral dynamics and policy challenges:

Petrol and Diesel: These remain growth leaders nationally, but regional contrasts are stark. Upper East and Western regions show exceptional petrol demand surges (+86.39% and +47.73%), while diesel consumption follows a similar pattern, reflecting industrial, mining, and agricultural intensification. The Volta region, however, reports declining diesel usage (–4.53%), reinforcing the uneven development landscape.

LPG: Despite a modest national growth of 5.04%, LPG’s story is deeply regionalized. The Upper West shines with an 85.93% leap, yet the Northern (–49.53%) and Volta (–31.09%) regions face sharp declines, spotlighting distribution gaps and affordability constraints that jeopardize government LPG penetration targets.

Premix Fuel: Declining by nearly a quarter nationally, premix’s slump reflects weakened fisheries and structural inefficiencies, particularly severe in Eastern (–56.14%) and Northern (–36.78%) regions, posing risks to coastal livelihoods.

Gasoil Cell Site Energy: A remarkable expansion in rural telecom infrastructure is evident, with eastern regions experiencing growth over 500%, signalling a telecom-driven energy footprint shift toward frontier markets.

Marine Gasoil: The split between local and foreign marine gasoil consumption epitomizes sectoral realignment. Local volumes collapsed (–56.84%) amid enforcement and tax changes, while foreign marine gasoil soared 420%, bolstering Ghana’s marine bunkering ambitions.

Fuel Oil for Power Plants: The explosive 4,572.7% increase in consumption is the sector’s defining phenomenon, revealing acute stress points in the national energy system, including hydroelectric shortfalls and gas supply volatility driving thermal generation spikes.
|

Market Structure and Corporate Performance: Winners and Losers

The competitive landscape is in flux. Star Oil has overtaken GOIL to become Ghana’s largest Oil Marketing Company (OMC), surging 41% to 403.3 million litres. Emerging challengers such as Moari Oil (+373%), Yass Petroleum (+261%), and Gaso Petroleum (+162%) signal robust new entrants disrupting the status quo. Meanwhile, GOIL and Puma Energy experienced slight declines, reflecting market share shifts in a growing but competitive sector.

In the LPG marketer space, Annandale leads with 18.9% market share despite minor losses, while breakout players like Henos Energy recorded a jaw-dropping +54,903% growth, pointing to transformative entrepreneurial energy in the LPG market.

Bulk Importers and Distributors (BIDECs) maintain Fueltrade’s dominant position, which grew nearly 66% to 744.8 million litres. Other fast growers include PWHS (+290%) and Sage Distribution (+82%), indicating diversification and deeper market penetration by several key players.

Strategic Signals: Navigating Ghana’s Energy Transition

The mid-year report lays bare a set of crucial signals shaping Ghana’s downstream petroleum trajectory:

Northern Expansion: The energy demand epicenter is shifting decisively northward and into the middle belt, redefining national growth patterns and infrastructure priorities.

Accra Saturation: The capital’s slowing growth reflects market maturity, underscoring the need for strategic investments beyond traditional urban hubs.

Systemic Stress: The unprecedented surge in Fuel Oil usage for power generation exposes vulnerabilities in hydroelectric reliability and gas supply chains, raising alarms about energy security and diversification.

Marine Fuels Realignment: The dichotomy between plummeting local marine gasoil and booming foreign marine bunkering highlights enforcement efficacy and Ghana’s growing maritime logistics footprint.

Telecom Energy Footprint: Expanding cell site energy demand in rural and frontier areas spotlights telecom infrastructure as a growing vector for fuel consumption.

LPG Penetration Challenges: The stark regional declines in LPG usage, despite clean energy policy rollouts, expose critical affordability and distribution failures requiring urgent policy redress.

Market Reshuffle: Star Oil’s ascent and the rise of new challengers illustrate a market in transition, where agility and innovation are rewarded amid growing demand and shifting regional dynamics.

Conclusion: Ghana’s Downstream Crossroads

COMAC’s half-year 2025 report offers an authoritative lens on Ghana’s downstream petroleum sector at a pivotal moment. The explosive growth, regional realignment, product shifts, and corporate reshuffling collectively narrate a landscape both vibrant and challenged.

Policymakers and market players face a complex balancing act: to harness growth opportunities in emerging regions while stabilizing mature markets, to address energy system vulnerabilities, and to bridge policy gaps—especially in clean fuel adoption. Ghana’s downstream sector is not merely expanding; it is evolving, signaling a new chapter in the nation’s energy story—one that demands strategic foresight, adaptive governance, and inclusive growth frameworks.