Power Supply Is Shifting, but Fossil Fuels Still Dominate Generation

In Numbers

●      ~75% fossil-based today: Oil and natural gas currently account for around three-quarters of electricity generation in the Middle East and North Africa.

●      Solar and wind lead new capacity: Renewables make up the majority of new power capacity additions, driven mainly by utility-scale solar.

●      Renewables approach ~30% of generation by 2035: Under current policies, clean power’s share rises sharply but does not fully displace fossil fuels.

What Changed

The electricity supply mix is shifting from near-total fossil dominance toward a more diversified system. Solar and wind are now the fastest-growing sources of new capacity due to falling costs. However, gas remains central to electricity generation, particularly for meeting peak demand and maintaining system stability. The outlook shows that capacity additions are changing faster than actual electricity generation.

Why It Matters

For the IEA’s global electricity futures analysis, this highlights a key transition challenge. Adding renewables does not automatically translate into reduced fossil generation. While clean power capacity is expanding quickly, fossil fuels, especially gas, continue to anchor electricity systems where demand growth is strong. This shapes global fuel demand, emissions outcomes, and the pace of power sector decarbonisation.

Why Africa Should Care

Many African power systems face similar conditions, with heavy reliance on fossil fuels alongside rapid solar expansion. The findings underline that renewables alone will not immediately replace dispatchable generation, particularly during periods of peak demand. For gas-producing countries, this supports the continued role of gas in domestic power supply even as exports remain important. For fuel-importing countries, faster renewable deployment can reduce exposure to fuel costs, but only if grid investment and system flexibility keep pace to maintain reliability.