Developing Economies Remain the Main Drivers of Oil Demand Growth

In Numbers

●     Non-OECD countries: expected to account for the bulk of global oil demand growth
 

●     China: continues as a key contributor to incremental global oil demand
 

●     India and other emerging Asian economies: show steady expansion in transport and industrial fuel use

What Changed

The demand outlook continues to show developing economies leading global oil consumption growth. There is no major shift away from this pattern in the latest assessment. Advanced OECD economies maintain comparatively modest demand trends, reinforcing the long-term shift in consumption toward emerging markets. The balance of growth remains centered in Asia and other developing regions.

Why It Matters

Oil demand growth is increasingly tied to countries still expanding transport networks, industry and urban infrastructure. This means global market stability and future consumption patterns depend more on economic conditions in developing regions than in mature economies. Trade flows, refining demand and pricing dynamics are therefore shaped by growth in emerging markets where energy use is still rising.

Why Africa Should Care

For African oil producers, export demand is increasingly linked to developing Asia rather than traditional OECD buyers. For importers, stronger demand in other developing regions supports active global refining, but also means prices respond to growth trends outside Africa. Fiscal exposure for producers remains tied to demand conditions in these key emerging markets.