Electricity Demand Growth Is Becoming Structural, Not Cyclical
In Numbers
● 3× increase since 2000: Electricity demand in the Middle East and North Africa has tripled over the past two decades, ranking among the fastest growth globally.
● ~50% increase by 2035: Under existing government policies, electricity demand is projected to rise by about half over the next decade.
● ~40% of growth from cooling and desalination: Air-conditioning and water desalination are expected to account for roughly two-fifths of future demand growth.
What Changed
Electricity demand growth in the region is now driven by long-term structural factors rather than short-term economic cycles. Demand has already expanded rapidly and is set to continue rising under current policies. Cooling needs, linked to rising temperatures and urbanisation, are becoming the main driver of both total consumption and peak demand. This shifts the electricity outlook toward system capacity, reliability, and peak management rather than fuel availability alone.
Why It Matters
For the IEA’s global electricity futures analysis, this confirms that emerging regions are increasingly shaping global demand growth. Climate-driven electricity use, such as cooling, creates sustained upward pressure on power systems regardless of economic conditions. This raises the urgency of investing in reliable and flexible power infrastructure to meet demand while limiting fuel use and emissions in the global electricity system.
Why Africa Should Care
African countries face similar drivers, including rapid urban growth and rising temperatures, which point to sustained increases in electricity demand. Without adequate investment in generation and grids, higher peak demand could worsen reliability challenges. Fuel-importing countries are more exposed to higher power system costs, while exporters must balance exports with domestic electricity needs. Rapid growth in urban demand also risks widening rural-urban electricity gaps unless access and reliability are built into power planning.
