OPEC Output Edges Higher as Non-OPEC Supply Growth Holds Firm

In Numbers

●     OPEC crude production (Dec 2025): ~26.7 million barrels per day, up month-on-month

●     Non-OPEC supply growth (2026 forecast): about +1.1 million barrels per day

●     Main growth areas outside OPEC: United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana

What Changed

OPEC crude output increased compared with the previous month, with higher production from key Gulf members contributing to the rise. At the same time, the outlook for supply growth from non-OPEC producers remains strong and broadly unchanged, meaning expansion outside the producer group continues as expected. Revisions to supply forecasts were limited, suggesting OPEC sees global supply trends as stable rather than shifting sharply. Overall, new barrels are still entering the market mainly from outside OPEC, while OPEC output adjusts within coordinated production frameworks.

Why It Matters (Global Oil Market)

The balance between OPEC supply management and rising non-OPEC production shapes how tight or well-supplied the oil market feels. When more oil comes from countries outside OPEC, it can ease pressure on prices, but it also limits how high prices can rise without encouraging even more production. This dynamic sits at the center of market stability, influencing investment decisions and expectations about future price movements.

Why Africa Should Care

For African oil-producing countries, additional supply from the Americas and elsewhere means global competition remains strong, which can cap price gains and affect export earnings and government revenue planning. For oil-importing African economies, a market with growing supply reduces the risk of physical shortages, but prices still depend on how OPEC and non-OPEC output move together. The outlook highlights the need for African producers to stay competitive in upstream investment, as global capital is also flowing toward fast-growing supply regions outside OPEC.