Global Oil Stocks Fall 29 mb as 2026 Demand Rises to 105.8 mb/d

In Numbers:

• 105.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) – projected global oil demand for 2026
 • 42.9 mb/d – expected “call” on DoC crude in 2026 (the volume the market needs from participating producers to stay balanced)
 • 2,737 million barrels (mb) – OECD commercial stocks in December, down 29.1 mb month-on-month and ~199 mb below the 2015–2019 average

What Changed:

Global demand is projected to rise from 104.2 mb/d in 2025 to 105.8 mb/d in 2026. Non-DoC supply growth remains incremental, lifting the call on DoC crude slightly to 42.9 mb/d. Meanwhile, OECD inventories declined sharply in December, deepening the gap below historical averages. In simple terms, the market is consuming more oil while stockpiles are thinning.

Why It Matters:

When demand climbs and inventories sit nearly 200 mb below their historical norm, the global oil market operates with a thinner safety cushion. Lower stock cover makes prices more responsive to supply outages, geopolitical tensions, or unexpected demand spikes. A higher call on DoC crude also reinforces the importance of coordinated production management in maintaining balance.

Why Africa Should Care:

For oil exporters such as Nigeria, Angola and Libya, tighter inventories support sustained external demand and fiscal relevance. For oil-importing African economies, thinner global stocks increase exposure to price volatility, with implications for fuel import bills and subsidy pressures. The data points to continued pricing and fiscal sensitivity across the continent.