Global GDP Seen at 3.1% in 2026, Macro Outlook Remains Steady
In Numbers:
• 3.0% – projected global GDP growth for 2025
• 3.1% – projected global GDP growth for 2026
• 4.6% (2025) / 4.5% (2026) – China GDP growth outlook
What Changed:
Macroeconomic assumptions remain broadly stable compared to the previous assessment. Global growth edges up slightly from 3.0% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026. The United States shows marginal improvement year-on-year, while the Eurozone gradually strengthens from a lower base. China’s growth moderates slightly from 4.6% to 4.5%, indicating steady but slower expansion. Overall, no major revisions signal economic disruption.
Why It Matters:
Oil demand tracks economic activity. Stable global growth projections suggest predictable consumption patterns in major markets such as the US and China. Without sharp upgrades or downgrades to GDP forecasts, the oil market faces a steady demand backdrop rather than volatility driven by macro shocks. This supports expectations of measured, incremental growth in global oil consumption.
Why Africa Should Care:
For exporters such as Nigeria, Angola and Libya, stable growth in major economies supports predictable export demand and fiscal planning. For oil-importing African economies, a steady macro outlook reduces the risk of abrupt price swings linked to economic contraction or overheating. The data points to a relatively stable external demand environment for the continent.
