2026 and Beyond. Can Ghana’s Energy Sector Deliver 4.8% GDP Growth.

If the lights stay on, 4.8% is within reach. If they flicker, the target fails.

The 2026 growth number stands on energy. Power cost, power reliability, and sector governance decide the outcome. Every growth channel in the budget runs through the grid.

Ghana cleared 1.47 billion dollars in energy arrears and restored the World Bank Partial Risk Guarantee. Risk pricing fell. Credit lines reopened. This reset the investment signal. Power projects move when risk falls. Industry follows power.

The budget assigns 2.5 billion dollars to energy infrastructure. Thermal capacity, grid reinforcement, gas pipelines. Outages still cut output. Losses still sit near 27%. World Bank elasticities show a 0.35% gain in manufacturing productivity for every 1% drop in outages. Cut losses to 15% and about 60 basis points flows into GDP. Few policy moves deliver this scale of lift this fast.

Gas anchors the strategy. Jubilee and OCTP deliver about 300 MMscf per day. The 1.2 gigawatt thermal cluster ties into the corridor. Power costs fall. Utilization rises. Plants schedule longer shifts. Gas also feeds fertilizer, methanol, and chemicals. Each dollar kept onshore yields over twice the value of a dollar exported raw. Energy turns into output.

Access widens the base. The rural grid rollout targets 1.2 million new connections by 2027. Electrified clinics, schools, and small firms raise output. A 10% rise in rural electrification links to about 1.8% growth in agricultural output. Cold chains and logistics switch on. Quality improves. Exports scale.

Governance remains the hinge. End user tariffs average about 10.5 US cents per kilowatt hour and cover roughly 78% of cost. The gap rebuilds arrears. IPP renegotiations saved about 250 million dollars. A further 1.1 billion dollars sits on reprofiling. Distribution losses drain about 380 million dollars each year. If these numbers hold, the 4.8% target slips. If tariffs align, losses fall, and contracts turn transparent, the target clears.

Add the industrial layer and the case strengthens. Lithium at Ewoyaa, graphite and manganese nearby, domestic gas, and AfCFTA access set the stage for a lithium to battery to EV chain in Tema and Takoradi. This adds about 3.75 billion dollars in annual exports and around 14,000 direct jobs. Direct GDP lift nears 5% with spillovers on top. Energy becomes industry. Industry becomes growth.

Ghana’s energy sector can deliver 4.8% GDP growth. Only if three conditions hold. Tariffs match cost. Losses fall fast. Contracts become transparent. When these align, the target shifts from ambition to arithmetic.

Fredrick Owusu, CGIA, is Associate Editor at PetroPulse, economist, investment strategist, and policy analyst focused on Africa’s growth, trade, and energy sectors.