Analysis Of USD/GHS Exchange Rate Trend– May 2025
The Ghanaian cedi (GHS) posted a remarkable performance in May 2025, appreciating by over 26% against the US dollar (USD). From an opening rate of GHS 13.90/USD on May 2, the cedi strengthened to GHS 10.28/USD by May 30. This rally, marked by a consistent upward trajectory with no major reversals, represents one of the strongest monthly performances by the cedi in recent years
May 2025 will be remembered as a landmark month for the Ghanaian cedi. The currency’s sharp appreciation against the US dollar reflects a confluence of positive developments, including macroeconomic policy, global market trends, and local confidence. As the country moves into the second half of the year, maintaining this momentum will depend on disciplined fiscal policy, strategic reserves management, and sustained economic growth
Brent crude oil prices closed May 2025 with a modest gain of 2.85%, rising from $62.13 per barrel on May 1 to $63.90 on May 30. The month was characterized by mild volatility, with prices oscillating in a relatively narrow band between $60.23 and $66.63. Market sentiment was driven by a blend of OPEC+ output policy expectations, geopolitical stability, and gradual recovery in global demand, particularly from emerging markets
The highest price recorded was $66.63 on May 13, and the lowest was $60.23 on May 5, indicating a maximum price spread of $6.40 (approx. 10.6%)
TREND ANALYSIS
EARLY MAY WEAKNESS (1ST–5TH MAY)
Brent crude began the month under pressure, declining from $62.13 to $60.23, driven by concerns about oversupply and mixed global economic data, particularly from Asia.
MID-MAY RALLY (6TH–16TH MAY)
Prices rebounded sharply in the second week, peaking at $66.63 on May 13. This rally was likely influenced by:
• Rising summer fuel demand projections in the Northern Hemisphere.
• Expectations of potential OPEC+ supply curbs to stabilize markets.
• Positive revisions to global GDP growth forecasts.
LATE-MAY CONSOLIDATION (19TH–30TH MAY)
After mid-month highs, Brent prices settled into a consolidation pattern, fluctuating between $63 and $65 per barrel. This suggests market participants were reassessing fundamentals, balancing demand optimism with high inventory levels in some regions.
KEY MARKET DRIVERS
OPEC+ OUTLOOK: Investors closely watched signals from OPEC+ regarding production policy. While no formal cuts were announced, cautious rhetoric helped support prices.
GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS: Stable conditions in key oil-producing regions (Middle East, Russia) limited supply disruption fears, keeping prices anchored.
GLOBAL DEMAND RECOVERY: A gradual rebound in industrial activity, especially in India and Southeast Asia, helped support demand expectations.
US INVENTORIES & SHALE PRODUCTION:
Inventory data from the U.S. showed mixed signals, while shale production remained steady. These factors capped further price gains.
GENERAL TREND ANALYSIS OF BRENT CRUDE PRICES IN MAY 2025
OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 2025
Looking ahead, Brent prices are likely to remain within the $62–$67 range, barring major geopolitical or economic shocks.
Key indicators to watch include:
• OPEC+ MINISTERIAL MEETINGS AND OUTPUT DECISIONS.
• U.S. AND CHINESE ECONOMIC DATA.
• SUMMER TRAVEL SEASON IMPACT ON FUEL CONSUMPTION.
• DOLLAR STRENGTH OR WEAKNESS, WHICH INVERSELY AFFECTS OIL PRICES.
Conclusion
Brent crude prices in May 2025 reflected a market in balance, driven by cautiously optimistic demand forecasts and managed supply expectations. The modest price appreciation signals a cautiously bullish sentiment in global energy markets. As Ghana and other oil-importing nations monitor these developments, the relative price stability in May bodes well for short-term fuel cost forecasting and forex planning.
