Rising Electricity Demand Is Increasing Economic and System Exposure in Developing Markets
Rapid electricity demand growth is reshaping economic and energy system risks in developing economies. In its report The Future of Electricity in the Middle East and North Africa, the International Energy Agency shows how fast-rising demand, driven by cooling, urbanisation, and population growth, increases fiscal, infrastructure, and reliability pressures in emerging power systems.
In Numbers
● Electricity demand up ~50% by 2035: Current policies imply a sharp expansion of power systems in developing regions.
● Peak demand more than doubles: Cooling-driven peaks grow faster than overall electricity use, increasing system stress.
● Fossil fuels still supply most power today: Gas and oil remain central to electricity generation, despite rapid renewable expansion.
What Changed
The IEA highlights that demand growth in developing regions is now structural rather than transitional. Rising peak demand increases exposure to outages where grids and reserve margins are weak. Continued reliance on fossil fuels links electricity affordability to fuel prices and public finances. At the same time, faster renewable deployment raises integration and grid investment requirements.
Why It Matters
In the IEA’s global electricity futures analysis, developing economies are now central to demand growth and system risk. Their ability to finance grids, manage peaks, and balance affordability with cost recovery will shape global fuel demand, emissions outcomes, and electricity security. Weak delivery capacity in these markets can amplify global supply and price volatility.
Why Africa Should Care
African power systems share many of these characteristics, including fast demand growth, limited grids, and affordability constraints. Rising peak demand increases the risk of outages and load shedding. Dependence on imported fuels exposes electricity systems to price and currency shocks. Without targeted investment in grids, flexibility, and access, demand growth risks widening reliability and equity gaps rather than delivering broad-based economic benefits.
