PetroPulse Intel - OECD Oil Stocks Rise Slightly as Market Balance Still Points to Small Deficit

In Numbers

●          OECD commercial oil stocks: 2,840 million barrels in Nov 2025, up 4.0 mb month-on-month

●          Stock composition shift: Crude inventories +8.1 mb, while refined product stocks −4.1 mb

●          Call on DoC crude (2026): 43.0 mb/d, unchanged; DoC output at 41.9 mb/d, implying a −0.4 mb/d gap to be met from stocks

What Changed

Oil inventories in advanced economies (OECD) increased modestly, but the build was concentrated in crude oil rather than fuels like diesel and gasoline.

Product stocks fell, suggesting steady end-user fuel consumption. At the same time, OPEC kept expected demand for OPEC+ crude next year unchanged, meaning the market still relies on inventory drawdowns to balance supply and demand.

The overall picture is one of slightly improved buffers, but not a fully comfortable surplus.

Why It Matters

Higher inventories act as a cushion, meaning there is some protection against sudden supply disruptions. However, falling product stocks and the small supply–demand gap show the market is still drawing on stored oil to stay balanced. In simple terms, the system is stable but not loose, so prices can still react quickly if supply or demand shifts.

Why Africa Should Care

For African fuel-importing countries, slightly higher global inventories reduce the risk of severe shortages, but tighter fuel stocks keep prices sensitive to shocks. For oil-producing states, a market that still needs stock draws supports ongoing demand for crude exports, though price swings remain possible. This keeps both fiscal planning and fuel affordability closely tied to global inventory trends.