Peak Demand Pressures Are Emerging as the Main Power System Risk

Electricity systems across the Middle East and North Africa are entering a new phase of stress. According to the International Energy Agency’s report The Future of Electricity in the Middle East and North Africa, rapid demand growth combined with rising temperatures is shifting the core challenge from producing enough electricity overall to managing sharp spikes in usage during peak periods.

In Numbers

●      Peak electricity demand more than doubles by 2035: Peak loads are projected to grow far faster than total electricity consumption.

●      Cooling is the dominant driver: Air-conditioning accounts for the largest share of peak demand growth as heat exposure increases.

●      Flexible gas generation remains critical: Gas-fired power plants continue to underpin system balance during high-demand periods.

What Changed

The IEA finds that reliability risks are increasingly driven by peak demand rather than average consumption. Cooling-related electricity use is now the main source of system stress during extreme heat. While solar and wind capacity is expanding, their variability increases the need for flexible generation and stronger grids. Power system balance and reliability are therefore becoming central planning priorities.

Why It Matters

In the IEA’s global electricity futures analysis, this shift underscores reliability as a binding constraint on power system transitions. Demand growth linked to climate conditions is less flexible and harder to manage than traditional industrial demand. Without sufficient flexibility, storage, and grid strength, even systems with rising generation capacity face higher outage risks, shaping global investment and fuel use decisions.

Why Africa Should Care

Many African power systems already operate with tight reserve margins and frequent outages. Rising temperatures and urbanisation are likely to increase cooling-driven peak demand, compounding reliability challenges. Hydropower-reliant systems face added exposure during droughts, while gas and thermal plants remain essential for balancing supply. Without focused investment in grids, flexible generation, and demand management, higher electricity demand could directly translate into more frequent disruptions