Oil Prices Firm as Refining Demand and Market Sentiment Strengthen
In Numbers
• $79.62 per barrel: Average OPEC Reference Basket price in February 2026
• +$1.38 per barrel: Month-on-month increase in the OPEC basket
• ~$79.33 per barrel: Average Brent crude price in February
• ~$74.23 per barrel: Average WTI crude price in February
• Improving refining margins: Particularly for gasoline and middle distillates such as diesel and jet fuel
What Changed
Oil benchmarks strengthened in February, with the OPEC Reference Basket rising $1.38 per barrel month-on-month. International benchmarks Brent and WTI also posted gains, reflecting firmer market sentiment. Investor positioning in oil futures markets turned more bullish, indicating expectations of tighter supply-demand conditions. At the same time, refining margins improved, meaning refineries were earning more by converting crude oil into fuels like gasoline and diesel. Together, these developments supported stronger crude prices.
Why It Matters
Oil prices reflect the balance between supply, demand, and market expectations. The broad increase across key benchmarks indicates that traders and refiners expect relatively firm market conditions, supported by steady demand and limited inventory buffers. Higher refining margins signal that refineries are processing more crude into transport fuels, which increases demand for crude oil itself. When investor sentiment and refinery demand align in this way, prices tend to remain supported across global benchmarks.
Why Africa Should Care
Higher global oil prices directly influence government revenues and energy costs across Africa. For oil-exporting countries such as Nigeria, Angola, and Ghana, stronger crude prices can support fiscal receipts from exports. However, oil-importing African economies face higher fuel import costs when global benchmarks rise. This dual exposure highlights how movements in global oil prices affect both national budgets in exporting states and energy affordability across the continent.
Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – March 2026
