Industrial Fuel Demand Surges as Ghana’s National Petroleum Supply Tops 1.08 Million Tonnes

Source: National Petroleum Authority Data

In Numbers:

●     1,086,559 Metric Tonnes (MT): Total cumulative domestic petroleum product supply for the first two months of 2026.

●     77.9% Market Core: Combined volume share of Gasoline (424,920 MT) and Gasoil (421,164 MT), underlining their status as the economy's primary fuels.

●     76.5% Industrial Surge: Month-on-month growth in Fuel Oil Industrial supply, rising from 11,822 MT in January to 20,865 MT in February.

●     24.1% Aviation Contraction: A significant dip in ATK (Aviation Turbine Kerosene) supply, falling from 21,248 MT to 16,124 MT between January and February.

●     111.3 Metric Tonnes: Total supply of LPG CRM, representing the initial volumes for the National Cylinder Recirculation Model (the new exchange system for cooking gas).

What Changed

National supply data reveals a minor 1.7% contraction in total monthly throughput between January and February. While the demand for Gasoline (petrol) and Gasoil (diesel) remained nearly equal and stable, the market saw a sharp pivot toward heavy industrial fuels. Conversely, the aviation sector experienced a cooling period, with ATK volumes dropping significantly. Additionally, the first recorded Kerosene supply of the year (43.5 MT) appeared in February, ending a zero-supply start in January.

Why It Matters

In the Ghana downstream sector, National Domestic Supply refers to the total volume of refined products made available for local consumption. The near-parity between Gasoline and Gasoil indicates a balanced reliance on private transport and commercial logistics. However, the surge in Fuel Oil is a critical indicator of intensifying industrial activity or power generation needs. The emergence of LPG CRM (Cylinder Recirculation Model) is also a milestone, signaling the formal operational takeoff of the government’s new distribution infrastructure designed to improve safety and access to cooking gas.

Implications for Ghanaian Stakeholders

The stabilized core volumes (Gasoline and Gasoil) provide the Government and NPA with a predictable fiscal base for tax and levy collection. However, the volatility in ATK and Marine Gasoil suggests that Ghana’s "hub" services—aviation and shipping—are currently more sensitive to commercial shifts than the domestic retail market. For BIDECs and OMCs, the massive jump in industrial fuel demand signals a need to realign bulk storage and logistics toward heavy distillates. Meanwhile, for Consumers, the steady rollout of LPG CRM supply suggests that the transition to the new cylinder exchange regulatory framework is gaining momentum, which will eventually alter how gas is purchased at the retail level.