Global Oil Supply Growth Holds Steady as Americas Lead Expansion
In Numbers
• +0.6 million barrels per day (mb/d): Expected growth in non-OPEC+ liquids supply in 2026
• 54.8 mb/d: Projected total non-OPEC+ liquids supply in 2026
• 55.4 mb/d: Forecast non-OPEC+ supply level in 2027
• +0.2 mb/d: Expected OECD production increase in 2026
• 42.72 mb/d: OPEC+ crude production in February 2026, up +445,000 barrels per day month-on-month
What Changed
The March outlook keeps the non-OPEC+ supply growth forecast unchanged at +0.6 mb/d for 2026, signalling a stable production outlook outside the producer alliance. Supply expansion remains concentrated in the Americas, led by the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. Meanwhile, OPEC+ production rose month-on-month in February, suggesting a modest near-term increase in alliance output. OECD supply is expected to grow slightly, while mature basins in Europe continue to decline. Overall, the report indicates steady but geographically concentrated supply growth.
Why It Matters
The outlook highlights a continuing structural feature of the global oil market: most incremental supply growth is coming from outside the OPEC+ alliance, particularly in the Western Hemisphere. This means the market is increasingly shaped by two parallel forces: expanding production from non-OPEC countries and coordinated output management by OPEC+. In simple terms, while new barrels are entering the market from places like Brazil and the United States, the producer alliance still influences overall market balance through production policy. The interaction between these forces plays a central role in determining global supply availability and price stability.
Why Africa Should Care
Rising supply from the Americas increases competition in global crude markets for African exporters such as Nigeria, Angola, and Ghana. As more barrels enter international markets, producers must remain competitive on cost, reliability, and export logistics. At the same time, the continued role of OPEC+ production management, with alliance output around 42.7 mb/d, remains important for maintaining price stability that supports government revenues in oil-dependent African economies. The outlook therefore reinforces the importance of sustained upstream investment and efficient production across African oil basins.
Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – March 2026
