Global Oil Demand Climbs to 105.8 mb/d as OECD Stocks Sit 199 mb Below Average
In Numbers:
• 105.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) – projected global oil demand for 2026
• 42.9 mb/d – expected call on DoC crude in 2026 (the volume needed from participating producers to balance the market)
• 2,737 million barrels (mb) – OECD commercial stocks in December, down 29.1 mb month-on-month and ~199 mb below the 2015–2019 average
What Changed:
Global oil demand is forecast to rise from 104.2 mb/d in 2025 to 105.8 mb/d in 2026, reflecting steady consumption growth. The required supply from DoC producers edges up to 42.9 mb/d, signalling a slightly tighter balance. At the same time, OECD inventories declined sharply in December and remain well below historical norms. In practical terms, the market is drawing down stocks while demand continues to expand.
Why It Matters:
When global demand increases and inventories remain significantly below average, the oil market operates with a thinner buffer against shocks. Lower stock levels mean prices can respond more quickly to supply disruptions or geopolitical developments. A higher call on DoC crude also underscores the market’s reliance on coordinated production management to maintain stability.
Why Africa Should Care:
For exporters such as Nigeria, Angola and Libya, tighter global balances support continued external demand and fiscal relevance. For oil-importing African economies, lower global stock cover increases exposure to international price swings, with implications for fuel import bills and subsidy frameworks. The outlook reinforces Africa’s dual exposure as both supplier and price taker in a tight global oil market.
