Ghana Oil & Gas: A Crossroads of Decline and Opportunity
Ghana’s oil production has steadily declined from 71.4 million barrels in 2019 to 48.25 million barrels in 2024. Despite this drop in volume, petroleum revenues rose to US$1.36 billion in 2024 being the second highest since first oil. Thanks to strong international prices.
Jubilee remains the backbone of Ghana’s upstream sector, averaging 87,000 barrels per day in 2024, while TEN produced 18,500 barrels per day. Enhanced water injection and new wells are expected to temporarily stabilise output. However, without new field developments, total national production could fall below 50,000 barrels per day by 2030.
Natural gas is now the primary fuel for Ghana’s electricity generation. Yet limited processing capacity led to the flaring of 28.5 billion standard cubic feet in 2024 — worth an estimated US$170 million. To address this, Cabinet has approved a second gas processing plant to lift national capacity and significantly cut flaring.
On the downstream side, Ghana commissioned the Sentuo Oil Refinery in January 2024. The plant is currently operating at 40,000 barrels per day and is expected to reach 100,000 barrels per day soon. This will enhance fuel security and retain more value domestically.
The Pecan project is Ghana’s most critical opportunity. If sanctioned, it could add up to 110,000 barrels per day by 2028. This single project could reverse Ghana’s production decline and reshape its energy landscape.
However, no new exploration blocks have been awarded since 2018. To change course, government is revising its fiscal and licensing terms and promoting local content. Ghana’s Climate Prosperity Plan, which targets US$76 billion in green investment by 2050, is also shifting focus to gas, flaring reduction, and low-carbon value creation.
By 2030, Ghana faces three possible futures:
✔ Stagnation: No new major projects result in declining output — down to 35 million barrels annually and under US$1 billion in revenue.
✔ Growth: Pecan comes online, Jubilee output is optimised, and gas infrastructure is completed — pushing production back to 70 million barrels and revenue above US$1.7 billion.
✔ Transition pressure: Global energy shift leads to lower demand and Brent at US$55 — revenues drop below US$800 million, increasing reliance on refining and carbon finance.
To secure the upside, Ghana must finalise the new fiscal regime, ensure timely payments into the Petroleum Holding Fund, and complete the second gas plant. Investors are watching for clarity, delivery, and alignment with climate goals.
Ghana is not yet in terminal decline — but time is short. With one strategic project, bold gas investment, and policy execution, it can pivot from a maturing oil producer to a dynamic energy hub in West Africa.
Written by Fredrick Owusu(CGIA)
