Power to Spare, Bills to Pay: Ghana’s Energy Paradox

Ghana’s energy story this week is one of contrasts. At the International Solar Alliance’s Seventh Regional Committee Meeting in Accra, Energy and Green Transition Minister John Abdulai Jinapor declared Ghana a net power exporter. The Energy Commission confirmed the shift: from a 534 GWh deficit in 2002 to a 2,056 GWh surplus in 2024. Two decades after rolling blackouts, Ghana is exporting stability across West Africa.

That confidence will be on display again next week when Ghana hosts the 31st edition of AOW:Energy from 15–18 September — the first time the major oil, gas, and energy forum leaves Cape Town. The event will showcase Ghana’s strategic assets and regulatory reforms to a global audience, underscoring the country’s rising profile in Africa’s energy landscape.

Yet the balance sheet tells another story. Energy sector arrears are nearing GHS 80 billion, much of it owed to independent producers. These debts weigh on investor confidence, strain sovereign credit, and threaten the very capacity that underpins the surplus. Ghana is producing more electricity than ever but struggling to pay for it.

The strain was evident at Public Utilities Regulatory Commission hearings. The Electricity Company of Ghana requested a 225% hike in distribution charges, while the Volta River Authority sought a 59% increase in generation rates, citing depreciation of the cedi, rising fuel costs, and infrastructure needs. The ministry promised to weigh affordability against sustainability, but the message was clear: the financial model is broken.

The dilemma mirrors Africa’s wider challenge. At the Africa Climate Summit in Addis Ababa, leaders set a $50 billion annual target for green industrialisation, framing climate finance as investment, not aid. In Namibia, the Global African Hydrogen Summit highlighted projects already advancing with contracts and financing secured. Across the continent, rhetoric is giving way to bankable deals.

Global dynamics complicate this ambition. On 9 September, the International Energy Agency projected oil supply growth of 2.3 million barrels per day in 2025, led by OPEC Plus. At the same time, demand expectations softened, pointing to oversupply and weaker prices.

For Ghana, lower oil prices ease fuel import costs but reduce petroleum revenues that support the budget. For Africa’s larger producers — Nigeria, Angola, Algeria — the squeeze is sharper, shrinking fiscal space for transition and diversification. In effect, global oversupply is eroding the very revenues Africa needs for its green leap.

This is the paradox. Ghana’s power surplus is a regional milestone, yet debts mount at home. Africa’s climate ambition is rising, but financing lags. Global oil cycles still dictate fiscal space in Accra, Abuja, and beyond.

Three lessons stand out. Operational success must be matched by financial reform. Africa must move decisively from summits to scalable investment. And resource dependence remains a vulnerability, not a cushion.

The question for Ghana is not whether it can generate enough power but whether it can build a system that pays for itself. For Africa, the sharper challenge is whether abundant resources can be turned into investable futures — or remain raw inputs for someone else’s transition.