Booming Cedi, Sinking Oil: The Case for a Green Energy Pivot
The first week of August 2025 delivered a rare and riveting collision of fiscal realities, corporate recalibration, and geopolitical maneuvering, binding Ghana’s domestic fortunes to Africa’s wider energy ambitions and the restless pulse of the global market.
In Accra, the numbers dazzled and dismayed in equal measure. The cedi has surged 40.7 percent against the U.S. dollar since January, backed by US$7.9 billion in reserves and turbocharged by record-high gold prices, a rally so convincing that Fitch Solutions now sees it lasting into 2026. But beneath that currency glow, the petroleum ledger told a far grimmer tale. First-half petroleum revenues collapsed 56 percent year-on-year to US$370.6 million, driven by a 25.5 percent drop in Ghana Group crude liftings and the drag of softer global oil prices. Tullow Oil’s books echoed the same pressure, with revenue shrinking from US$759 million to US$524 million, gross profit sliced in half, and a US$196 million profit swinging to a US$61 million loss. Realised prices fell to US$69 per barrel from US$77.7, a sharp reminder of how tightly Ghana’s fiscal health is chained to the pulse of global markets. And that fragility was anything but theoretical. On August 6, the Ghana Road Transport Coordinating Council and major unions announced a 20 percent public transport fare hike, blaming rising operating costs. By August 8, the Ministry of Transport was forced to suspend it after a public backlash, proof that in today’s Ghana, energy-linked costs can turn political kindling into open flame even when the currency is flying high.
Across Africa, the week revealed a continent in strategic motion. South Africa unveiled plans to expand natural gas in its power mix to stabilise its grid, aiming to cut blackouts and reduce coal dependency, a move with potential knock-on effects for regional LNG demand and cross-border supply chains. In West Africa, Kosmos Energy reported steady progress on its offshore developments, keeping timelines intact despite the price headwinds, underscoring the resilience of operators with diversified portfolios. Corporate deals reflected a similar tone of strategic positioning as energy infrastructure assets continued to draw investor interest, with midstream and LNG logistics emerging as the quiet chessboard on which future continental energy flows will be decided. The underlying theme was clear: African players are recalibrating, seeking resilience in the face of price volatility and anticipating a tighter link between domestic energy stability and geopolitical leverage.
This regional repositioning was mirrored and magnified on the global stage. The OPEC+ meeting closed with a decision to raise production quotas, a move that looked bold on paper but rang hollow in execution because most members remain unable to meet even current targets. Analysts read the decision as more political than practical, a signal to consuming nations that supply concerns are being addressed even as structural capacity limits bite. Oil prices dipped midweek under the weight of a stronger dollar and renewed demand fears, but the underlying market tightness from underinvestment and geopolitical risk remains. The geopolitical layer thickened further with the unexpected Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meeting in Moscow, sparking speculation about future shifts in U.S.–Russia energy relations, sanctions policy, and global LNG and crude flows. For markets, such high-level engagements inject a volatility premium, not because deals are struck overnight, but because they alter the probability map of future supply disruptions or alliances.
Corporate manoeuvres added another note to the week’s energy symphony. Global oilfield service firms reported robust order books, particularly in deepwater and LNG-linked segments, signalling that despite price softness, investment appetite for strategic long-cycle projects remains. In parallel, European gas storage levels reached seasonal highs, momentarily easing winter supply fears but also capping near-term LNG prices, a dynamic closely watched by African producers seeking to secure premium market slots.
The week ahead promises no lull. Ghana faces the delicate task of plugging a US$370 million hole in its petroleum revenue while managing the political optics of cost-of-living pressures. In Africa, attention will be on how South Africa’s gas ambitions translate into concrete project announcements and financing deals. Globally, all eyes are on crude price responses to the OPEC+ decision, U.S. inventory data, and any follow-on signals from the Trump–Putin meeting. The lesson is unambiguous: in energy, there are no isolated events. Currency surges, revenue slumps, political protests, production quotas, and geopolitical handshakes all flow through the same interconnected system. And when the currents run this fast, the ripples of a single week can travel a very long way. It is also a clear signal that the time to invest heavily in the green energy transition is now, not later, because the forces shaping energy markets today will define economic stability, political resilience, and environmental security for decades to come.
