IEA Forecasts Renewables to Overtake Coal as Leading Global Power Source by 2025
Paris | 1 August 2025 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected a historic inflection point in global energy generation: renewables are set to surpass coal as the leading source of electricity by 2025, marking the first time fossil fuels will be eclipsed in global power supply. The finding, outlined in the agency’s Electricity 2025 Executive Summary, confirms what clean energy advocates have long predicted: wind and solar are not just complementary; they are now central to the future of global power systems.
The IEA’s latest Global Energy Review attributes the shift to explosive renewable capacity additions across major markets—led by China, the EU, the US, and India. Solar PV alone is expected to contribute more than half of all new global electricity generation through 2026, with wind playing a supporting but increasingly critical role. At the same time, global coal demand is projected to remain flat through 2025 and 2026, reinforcing coal’s decline as a growth driver in the global energy mix.
The structural decoupling of coal from electricity expansion signals a tectonic realignment in energy economics and climate diplomacy. According to the IEA, this transformation is part of a broader “Age of Electricity” being ushered in by surging demand, urbanisation, and digitalisation. Total global electricity demand is expected to increase by over 20% between 2023 and 2027, equivalent to adding another United States to the power grid. Yet, unlike previous decades, much of this demand will now be met by renewable technologies, not coal-fired baseload.
This milestone is not just symbolic. It has deep implications for emerging markets, particularly in Africa, where grid expansion, industrialisation, and energy access remain top development priorities. For countries like Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa, the global shift offers both opportunity and challenge: to align national policies with evolving financing trends and to unlock private capital for scalable, low-carbon generation.
The IEA’s Renewables 2025 Outlook emphasises that future power system resilience will depend on flexible integration, cross-border cooperation, and energy storage investment. It also flags the critical need for enabling infrastructure, particularly in regions where electrification remains low. Africa, with its abundant solar potential and high energy deficit, could be a major beneficiary of this shift—if regulatory clarity and long-term planning are in place.
In a detailed breakdown, the IEA cautions that coal still remains deeply entrenched in some economies, especially for industrial heat and hard-to-abate sectors. But the overall trend is clear: the clean energy transition is no longer theoretical. It is happening, fast, and at scale.
With the world at the brink of a historic energy reshuffle, the priority for African policymakers and energy firms is clear: act quickly, align incentives, and design systems built for a renewable-dominant future. As renewables prepare to take the global lead, those who move early stand to benefit most.
