From Cuts to Increases: OPEC+ Charts New Path as 2025 Winds Up
Photo Credit: OPEC
OPEC+ has shifted decisively from restraint to expansion in 2025, restoring more than two million barrels per day of crude since April and now moving to unwind a deeper tranche of cuts initially scheduled to last until 2026. The pace of the turnaround underscores a strategic recalibration by the group’s leading producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, in favor of market share even as oversupply risks loom.
The year’s inflection point came on April 3, when OPEC announced that eight participating countries - including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, would begin phasing out part of their voluntary reductions. The decision, rooted in a December 2024 pledge, restored 411,000 barrels per day effective May, representing three months’ worth of phased increases. Days later, the Secretariat confirmed receipt of updated compensation plans from the same members to address past overproduction, giving the wind-up added institutional weight.
Summer’s momentum picked up the pace. On July 5, OPEC confirmed that the voluntary cut rollback would accelerate with a 548,000 barrel per day increase for August. Less than a month later, on August 5, the group formalized another 547,000 barrel per day increase for September. In the space of three months, OPEC+ had effectively neutralized the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts agreed at the close of 2024, months ahead of schedule.
For market watchers, the speed of these restorations reflected more than technical compliance. They marked a deliberate pivot: OPEC+ was no longer defending prices through tight supply but instead positioning its leading producers to capture share in a crowded global market.
The next phase came into view in early September, when Bloomberg reported that OPEC+ delegates had agreed in principle to increase production by another 137,000 barrels per day beginning in October. Unlike the earlier restorations, this move goes beyond the 2.2 million barrels per day tranche. It marks the start of unwinding a separate 1.66 million barrels per day reduction that had been scheduled to last through 2026.
Though not yet confirmed in an OPEC press release, the October decision signals that the group is accelerating the timetable of its broader supply strategy, moving faster than many analysts expected just months ago.
The strategy carries risks. The International Energy Agency has already flagged the possibility of oversupply into late 2025, given rising output from U.S. shale and other non-OPEC sources. A faster return of OPEC+ barrels could put downward pressure on prices, particularly if global demand growth slows.
For OPEC+, 2025 has become a transition year: a pivot from the defensive logic of deep cuts to the offensive play of supply expansion. April’s cautious restoration set the tone, July and August accelerations reinforced the trajectory, and October’s in-principle agreement has opened the door to unwinding cuts once thought untouchable until 2026.
As the year winds up, the group’s challenge will be balancing its appetite for market share with the risk of undermining prices. For the wider oil market, the signal is clear: the age of OPEC+ restraint is giving way to a more aggressive cycle of supply competition.
