Chokepoints and Turning Points - Ghana’s Energy Resilience in an Unstable World
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most sensitive oil corridors. Narrow, fraught with geopolitical tension, and crucial to the movement of roughly 20% of global oil shipments, its significance is as old as modern energy politics itself. But in June 2025, with Israel-Iran tensions spiking to dangerous highs, the waterway has once again taken centre stage in a high-stakes drama with consequences far beyond the Gulf.
Oil markets have already responded. Brent crude surged to a six-month high of $74 per barrel, with analysts warning that any real disruption to the Strait could send oil prices past $100 - possibly even toward $150 per barrel. That’s more than three times the price shocks of the 1970s. Such a crisis would have instant ripple effects on global supply chains, transport costs, and inflation across the world.
Yet amidst this instability, Ghana finds itself in a rare position of resilience.
Despite the mounting global price pressures, fuel prices at Ghanaian pumps have seen reductions in the first half of 2025. The reason? A sharp appreciation of the cedi - more than 25% this year - combined with timely downward adjustments by oil marketing companies, including Goil and Star Oil. These gains reflect effective macroeconomic policy and disciplined fiscal measures. But they also highlight a deeper structural vulnerability: Ghana still imports the majority of its refined petroleum products, and any major global supply disruption could reverse current gains in an instant.
This is where the moment becomes not just a chokepoint - but a turning point.
In May, the Acting Managing Director of Tema Oil Refinery (TOR), Mr. Edmond Kombat, announced that Ghana is on course to begin refining operations by October 2025. The target is ambitious: to refine at least 60% of Ghana’s domestically produced crude. But if realised, this development could mark a monumental shift in the country’s energy security trajectory.
The implications are vast. By refining its own crude, Ghana would gain protection against wild price swings on international refined product markets. It would strengthen its fiscal buffer, create jobs, and preserve foreign exchange. More importantly, it would finally give Ghana strategic control over one of the most consequential levers of its economy.
And this is not an isolated effort.
Across Africa, there is movement. From Namibia’s accelerated drilling push in the Orange Basin to Angola’s expanded export strategy, from Mozambique’s gas infrastructure to Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery altering the face of West African downstream, the continent is no longer waiting for the world to define its energy future. It is building it.
Ghana’s Petroleum Hub vision, led by the Petroleum Hub Development Corporation (PHDC), fits squarely within this continental surge - aiming not just to refine, but to integrate, store, and distribute energy at a regional scale. In doing so, Ghana positions itself as more than a player in the African energy landscape - it becomes a linchpin of resilience and regional strength.
Still, none of these efforts should breed complacency. TOR must be restored and managed with rigor. The refining timelines must be met with transparency. The PHDC vision must be de-risked and executed with care. And perhaps most importantly, citizens must feel the impact - not just through macroeconomic indicators, but in transport costs, cooking fuel prices, employment numbers, and local investments.
The Strait of Hormuz reminds us that energy geopolitics remains volatile, and the price of inaction is steep. But it also reminds us that crisis, when met with foresight and resolve, can become the crucible of national transformation.
Ghana’s oil story is not just about drilling more - it is about owning more, refining more, and controlling more of the value chain. From the chaos of chokepoints, new turning points can emerge. This may well be Ghana’s moment to lead the continent as it did with independence - this time, in the energy sector.
